Newcomers need to understand Canada’s job market before and after arrival to make it easier to find a job. The latest Canada job market report for November 2024 contained good and bad news for newcomers and international students: hiring was strong, but the unemployment rate rose as job creation was negated by more people looking for jobs.
According to the most recent Statistics Canada report, the unemployment rate in Canada rose to 6.8% in November, up from 6.5% in October. That’s the highest jobless rate since January 2017.
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- Job Gains in Key Sectors
- Canada’s Job Market Remains “Solid”
- How Do Interest Rates Affect the Job Market in Canada?
- Inflation Also Affects Job Creation
- Changes in the Canadian Job Market by Sector
- Highlights for Newcomers from the November Job Market Report:
- Job Outlook for Canada
- Job Market Trends to Watch
- November Unemployment Rates in Major Canadian Cities:
- Job Market Report Summary
Job Gains in Key Sectors
On the plus side for newcomers, the report shows 51,000 jobs were created in November. That is double what most economists were predicting. However, an increased number of job seekers outweighed this significant job gain, which caused a higher jobless rate.
According to the most recent Statistics Canada report, these sectors saw job gains in November:
- Wholesale and Retail Trade (39,000+)
- Construction (18,000+)
- Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (17,000+)
- Educational Services (15,000+)
- Accommodation and food services (15,000+).
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The transportation, manufacturing and warehousing, and natural resources sectors saw a drop in jobs.
Alberta added the most jobs in October with 24,000 jobs, Quebec added 22,000 jobs, Manitoba added 6,600, and Prince Edward Island added 2,700. Employment changed little in the other provinces.
Canada’s Job Market Remains “Solid”
“The rise in Canada’s unemployment rate is being driven by factors that should be fixed by immigration policy,” said Derek Holt, Vice President and Head of Capital Markets Economics for Scotiabank.
“The rise in the unemployment rate is being overwhelmingly driven by ongoing excessive immigration of international students and temporary foreign workers who can’t get jobs,” said Holt. “Temps are driving the bulk of the rise in unemployment over time.”
James Orlando, senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, remains upbeat about Canada’s job market despite the spike in the November jobless rate.
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“Even with the messiness of (the) employment report, the economy continues to add jobs, reinforcing our view that the labour market is on solid foundations.”
How Do Interest Rates Affect the Job Market in Canada?
For newcomers to Canada finding a job is a priority.
In a move intended to help the economy and create jobs, the Bank of Canada again lowered the benchmark interest rate by .50 basis points to 3.25% from 3.75% on Dec. 11. This marks the fifth consecutive rate cut since June (and the second .50bp cut in a row). These cuts by the Bank of Canada are intended to boost the Canadian economy and create more jobs.
The cuts will help the Canadian housing sector, which has been slowed by high interest rates. Housing experts expect the recent cuts will bring more homebuyers into the market in 2025.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that more gradual cuts were coming next year. The Bank of Canada’s next rate announcement is January 29, 2025.
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Inflation Also Affects Job Creation
As of October, Canada’s inflation rate stood at 2%, up from 1.6% in September, according to Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada has established 2% inflation as its target.
With inflation now appearing stable and hovering near the Bank’s 2% target, many economists predict that lower inflation will increase job creation in 2025.
For newcomers to Canada, the current inflation rate affects how much you pay for housing, groceries, transportation, and other expenses. Staying informed about inflation changes can help you budget and manage your finances.
Analysts consider Canada’s economy particularly vulnerable to interest and inflation rate fluctuations. Canadians carry high household debt levels and frequently renew their housing mortgages. That means a sharp rise in borrowing costs or inflation can negatively affect the economy
Changes in the Canadian Job Market by Sector
| SECTOR | % CHANGE OCTOBER TO NOVEMBER 2024 |
|---|---|
| Agriculture | -1.5 |
| Natural Resources | -1.8 |
| Utilities | -0.7 |
| Construction | 1.2 |
| Manufacturing | -1.6 |
| Wholesale and Retail Trade | 1.3 |
| Transportation and Warehousing | -1.7 |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing | 0.7 |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 0.9 |
| Business, Building and Other Support Services | -0.8 |
| Educational Services | 1.0 |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 0.3 |
| Information, Culture and Recreation | -0.4 |
| Accommodation and Food Services | 1.3 |
| Other Services (Except Public Administration) | -0.6 |
| Public Administration | -0.2 |
Highlights for Newcomers from the November Job Market Report:
- Private-sector employment saw a slight increase. Private sector job growth has risen 1.3% year-over-year.
- Public sector jobs increased by 45,000.
- Public-sector employment has risen 2.9% year over year, driven mainly by hiring in health care.
- Most new positions were full-time.
- Average hourly wages rose 4.1% year-over-year in November, slowing from 4.9% in October.
- The number of unemployed people (those actively searching for work or on temporary layoff) rose by 87,000 in November, bringing the total to 1.5 million.
- Over the past year, the ranks of the unemployed have risen 22%.
- The youth (aged 15-24) unemployment rate rose to 13.9% in November after two months of declines.
Job Outlook for Canada
Scotiabank’s Derek Holt points out that the gain of 51,000 jobs in November and the long-term hiring trends in the Canadian economy are not inconsequential.
“Canada has created a whopping 112,000 jobs in the past three months,” said Holt. “Almost all of that was in private payrolls and self-employed…That’s not exactly a labour market that is shrivelling away.”
Economists anticipate that the “population growth exceeding job growth” pattern will continue into 2025. Once the new restrictions on the number of temporary foreign workers and international students allowed into Canada have an impact, the job market will be more balanced.
“One reason the federal government has changed its (immigration) policy so abruptly is because strong population growth has put upward pressure on the unemployment rate,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist for BMO.
“Looking ahead, with much slower population growth and a pickup in the economic growth rate over the next year, we expect this steep deterioration in the job market to give way to better conditions by late 2025.”
It is also expected that wage increases will continue into 2025, though experts predict they will likely be smaller and less frequent.
Job Market Trends to Watch
Newcomers should pay attention to Canadian job market trends that will affect their job search, such as:
- Increases or decreases in Canada’s inflation and interest rates
- Decreases in consumer spending
- Decreases in government spending.
- A possible early Canadian federal election
The recent U.S. election may also affect job market trends in Canada in 2025, mainly if the new Republican government proceeds with its plan to impose tariffs on foreign-produced goods. Canada is America’s number one trading partner and has threatened to retaliate against new tariffs. A trade war between Canada and the U.S. would substantially impact the economy and jobs.
Rhys Mendes, the Bank of Canada’s deputy governor, said the labour market will see changes.
“We’re looking for growth to pick up next year and the year after,” said Mendes. “And so as growth picks up, that should also support the labour market.”
November Unemployment Rates in Major Canadian Cities:
The unemployment rate is a measure to understand the economy’s health and the job market.
| CITY AND PROVINCE | JOBLESS RATE NOVEMBER 2024 % (OCTOBER 2024 %) |
|---|---|
| CANADA | 6.8 (6.5) |
| Barrie, Ontario | 5.8 (5.6) |
| Calgary, Alberta | 7.9 (7.7) |
| Edmonton, Alberta | 8.3 (8.6) |
| Halifax, Nova Scotia | 5.1 (5.4) |
| Hamilton, Ontario | 6.8 (6.2) |
| Kitchener- Cambridge-Waterloo, Ontario | 7.7 (7.8) |
| London, Ontario | 6.5 (6.4) |
| Ottawa, Ontario | 6.1 (6.3) |
| Regina, Saskatchewan | 5.7 (6.0) |
| Saskatoon, Saskatchewan | 5.2 (5.4) |
| Sudbury, Ontario | 5.5 (5.9) |
| Toronto, Ontario | 8.1 (8.0) |
| Vancouver, British Columbia | 6.4 (6.4) |
| Windsor, Ontario | 8.7 (8.8) |
| Winnipeg, Manitoba | 5.9 (5.8) |
Job Market Report Summary
Understanding job market trends is essential for newcomers who want to continue their careers in Canada. The continuing solid growth in full-time jobs created in November, combined with low inflation and rapidly falling interest rates, indicates a resilient Canadian economy. Employment rates remain stable in the critical 25-54 year-old age group.
Researching job prospects and the outlooks for your profession in Canada is the key to your success. It will make it easier to continue your career if there is a strong outlook for your profession. You can research Career Pathways for more than 20 occupations in Canada.
Housing costs (rent and homebuying) continue to fall in many Canadian cities, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver. This is also good news for the Canadian economy and newcomers. Choosing a destination city with affordable housing options (renting and buying) and strong job prospects will lay the foundation for newcomer success.
Sources:
Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics, Canadian Press, Globe and Mail, Bank of Canada
Steve Tustin is the Editor for Rentals for Newcomers and a contributing editor for Prepare for Canada. He is also the former managing editor of Storeys.com and a former senior editor at the Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star.
