Newcomers need to understand Canada’s job market before and after arrival to make it easier to find a job. The latest Canada job market report for October, 2024 was good news for newcomers and international students, as the number of jobs created was solid, and unemployment remained unchanged from September.
According to the latest Statistics Canada job market report, the unemployment rate in October was unchanged at 6.5%, which is what most economists predicted.
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- Job Gains in Key Sectors
- Canada Job Market Remains “Resilient”
- How Do Inflation and Interest Rates Affect the Job Market in Canada?
- Rate Cuts May Boost Job Creation
- Changes in the Canadian Job Market by Sector
- Highlights for Newcomers from the October Job Market Report:
- Job Outlook for Canada
- October Unemployment Rates in Major Canadian Cities:
- Immigration and What it Means for Canada’s Job Market
- Job Market Summary
Job Gains in Key Sectors
The Canadian economy grew by 14,500 jobs, compared to many economists’ predictions of a gain of as high as 27,000. These sectors saw job gains in October:
- Manufacturing (10,000+)
- Construction (6,000+)
- Business/building/other support services (jobs that support the day-to-day operations of organizations, from waste management to administrative services and call centres (29,000+).
- Education (12,000+)
- Accommodation and food services (12,000+).
The finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing sectors saw a drop in jobs.
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Alberta added the most jobs in October with 13,000 jobs, New Brunswick added 3,300 jobs, and Prince Edward Island lost 1,100 jobs.
Canada Job Market Remains “Resilient”
Derek Holt, Scotiabank’s Vice President and Head of Capital Markets Economics, says the gain of almost 15,000 jobs in October “keeps the trend resilient.” He described the job market report as “an okay set of numbers that offer mixed perspectives on the labour market and economy.”
According to the report, youths, full-time employment and the private sector drove all the job gains, but hiring across the economy was described as weak.
How Do Inflation and Interest Rates Affect the Job Market in Canada?
With inflation in Canada now at 1.6% and below the Bank of Canada’s target of 2%, many economists predict that employment will rise in 2025.
Also, the Bank of Canada lowered its interest rate by .50 basis points to 3.75% from 4.25% in October. This move is expected to impact the economy, particularly the housing market, which has seen sales and prices decline sharply due to high interest rates. Economists predict the cuts will bring more homebuyers into the market in 2025.
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Another interest rate cut by .50 basis points may happen on December 4, 2024.
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Rate Cuts May Boost Job Creation
Some Canadian economists predict continuing job market weakness in the months ahead before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts impact economic growth in 2025.
After last month’s rate cut decision, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said layoffs had remained modest. Still, business hiring has been weak, which has affected young people and newcomers to Canada. Macklem believes continued rate cuts will help grow the economy and increase employment.
Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at RBC, said the latest data shows “more urgency” for the central bank to announce another steep interest rate cut to stimulate the economy.
Meanwhile, strong wage growth continues in the Canadian job market, with average hourly wages in October up 4.9% from October 2023. This trend is also expected to continue in the short term.
Changes in the Canadian Job Market by Sector
| SECTOR | % CHANGE SEPTEMBER TO OCTOBER 2024 |
|---|---|
| Agriculture | -2.0 |
| Natural Resources | 0.4 |
| Utilities | 0.5 |
| Construction | 0.4 |
| Manufacturing | 0.5 |
| Wholesale and Retail Trade | -0.3 |
| Transportation and Warehousing | -0.9 |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing | -0.9 |
| Professional, Scientific and Technical Services | 0.2 |
| Business, Building and Other Support Services | 4.2 |
| Educational Services | 0.8 |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | -0.0 |
| Information, Culture and Recreation | -0.8 |
| Accommodation and Food Services | 1.1 |
| Other Services (Except Public Administration) | -1.0 |
| Public Administration | -0.7 |
Highlights for Newcomers from the October Job Market Report:
- Canada’s labour force has grown by 2.% since October of 2023.
- Average hourly wages rose 4.9% from last year, up $1.68 to $35.76 an hour.
- The youth employment rate increased for the first time since April 2024 but has fallen 2.7 percentage points year over year.
- The employment rate continues to shrink, with October showing a further decline to 60.6% from 61.9% in October 2023.
- Hourly hourly wages rose 4.9% from last year, up 1.68 to $35.78. However, almost 30% of Canadians aged 15 or older lived in a household with difficulty meeting financial needs such as food and housing in the previous four weeks.
- Four out of 10 immigrants who arrived in 2023 were also more likely to report facing financial strain in October. For more established immigrants, that number is three out of 10 and one in four for people born in Canada.
Job Outlook for Canada
Brendon Bernard, a senior economist at hiring website Indeed, points out that October brought “more of the same” for the labour market.
“Employment eked out modest gains, once again swamped by still strong population growth,” said Bernard.
This is now a familiar pattern, with population outpacing job growth in 2024 except for one month. This pattern is expected to continue into 2025 until new restrictions on the number of temporary foreign workers and international students admitted into Canada finally impact the job market.
Wage increases are also expected to continue into 2025.
“The job market isn’t delivering for those out of work, but for those in stable employment, pay gains are looking healthy,” Bernard said.
For the remainder of 2024 and into 2025, newcomers should pay attention to job market trends that will affect their job search, such as:
- Increases or decreases in Canada’s inflation rate
- Decreases in consumer spending
- Decreases in government spending.
The recent election in the United States may also impact job market trends in Canada, mainly if the new Republican government goes ahead with its plan to impose tariffs on foreign-produced goods. Canada is America’s number one trading partner.
October Unemployment Rates in Major Canadian Cities:
The unemployment rate is a measure to understand the economy’s health and the job market.
| CITY AND PROVINCE | JOBLESS RATE OCTOBER 2024 % (SEPTEMBER 2024 %) |
|---|---|
| CANADA | 6.5 (6.5) |
| Barrie, Ontario | 5.6 (5.9) |
| Calgary, Alberta | 7.7 (7.4) |
| Edmonton, Alberta | 8.6 (9.0) |
| Halifax, Nova Scotia | 5.4 (5.5) |
| Hamilton, Ontario | 6.2 (6.2) |
| Kitchener- Cambridge-Waterloo, Ontario | 7.8 (7.6) |
| London, Ontario | 6.4 (6.4) |
| Ottawa, Ontario | 6.3 (6.3) |
| Regina, Saskatchewan | 6.0 (6.3) |
| Saskatoon, Saskatchewan | 5.4 (5.4) |
| Sudbury, Ontario | 5.9 (5.7) |
| Toronto, Ontario | 8.0 (8.0) |
| Vancouver, British Columbia | 6.4 (6.3) |
| Windsor, Ontario | 8.8 (8.9) |
| Winnipeg, Manitoba | 5.8 (5.8) |
Immigration and What it Means for Canada’s Job Market
On October 24, 2024, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) released its new immigration targets for 2025 – 2027. The new plan and lower targets aim to reduce pressure on housing and other services. While housing costs are going down, they remain high. The changes will occur across all permanent residence categories. Canada has also reduced the number of temporary foreign workers and international students it welcomes.
| YEAR | PERMANENT RESIDENCE TARGETS |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 395,000 (down from 500,00) |
| 2026 | 380,000 (down from 500,000) |
| 2027 | 365,000 |
The new plan will result in a population decline of 0.2% in 2025 and 2026 and an increase of 0.8% in 2027.
Economists like Scotiabank’s Derek Holt predict these population growth policies will impact the job market and labour force in 2025. The changes aim to close the uneven gap between high population growth and job creation.
With a rapidly changing job market, it’s increasingly important to consider how changes will affect job prospects in your specific industry and occupation.
Job Market Summary
Understanding job market trends is essential for newcomers who want to continue their careers in Canada. The continuing solid growth in full-time jobs created in October, combined with low inflation and falling interest rates, indicates a resilient Canadian economy. Employment rates remain stable in the critical 25-54 year-old age group.
Researching job prospects and the outlooks for your profession in Canada is the key to your success. It will make it easier to continue your career if there is a strong outlook for your profession. You can research Career Pathways for more than 20 occupations in Canada.
Housing costs (rent and homebuying) are falling in some cities, such as Toronto and Vancouver. This is also good news for the Canadian economy and newcomers. Choosing a destination city with affordable housing options and strong job prospects will lay the foundation for newcomer success.
Sources:
Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics, Canadian Press, Globe and Mail, Bank of Canada
Steve Tustin is the Editor for Rentals for Newcomers and a contributing editor for Prepare for Canada. He is also the former managing editor of Storeys.com and a former senior editor at the Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star.
